Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features (preprint)

It is of interest to pinpoint SARS-CoV-2 sequence features defining vaccine resistance. In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe–critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were measured from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19 during the trial. In Latin America, where Spike diversity was greatest, VE was significantly lower against Lambda than against Reference and against all non-Lambda variants [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE also differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-strain residue at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20). VE significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 different antibody-epitope escape scores and by 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccine recipient sera. VE against severe–critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against viruses with greatest distances. These results help map antigenic specificity of in vivo vaccine protection.

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial (preprint)

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Estimation and interpretation of vaccine efficacy in COVID-19 randomized clinical trials (preprint)

An exceptional effort by the scientific community has led to the development of multiple vaccines against COVID-19. Efficacy estimates for these vaccines have been widely communicated to the general public, but are nonetheless challenging to compare because they are based on phase 3 trials that differ in study design, definition of vaccine efficacy and in the handling of cases arising shortly after vaccination. In this work, we investigate the impact of these choices on vaccine efficacy estimates, both theoretically and by re-analyzing the Janssen and Pfizer COVID-19 trial data under a uniform protocol. We moreover study the causal interpretation that can be assigned to per-protocol analyses typically performed in vaccine trials. Finally, we propose alternative estimands to measure the intrinsic vaccine efficacy in settings with delayed immune response.

Efficacy and Safety of a Booster Regimen of Ad26.COV2.S Vaccine against Covid-19 (preprint)

BackgroundDespite the availability of effective vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), the emergence of variant strains and breakthrough infections pose a challenging new reality. Booster vaccinations are needed to maintain vaccine-induced protection. MethodsENSEMBLE2 is an ongoing, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 pivotal trial including crossover vaccination after emergency authorization of Covid-19 vaccines. Adults aged [≥]18 years were randomized to receive Ad26.COV2.S or placebo as a primary dose plus a booster dose at two months. The primary endpoint was vaccine efficacy against the first occurrence of molecularly-confirmed moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 with onset [≥]14 days after booster vaccination in the per-protocol population. Key efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity endpoints were also assessed. ResultsThe double-blind phase enrolled 31,300 participants, 14,492 of whom received 2 doses and were evaluable for efficacy (per-protocol set, Ad26.COV2.S n=7484; placebo n=7008). Baseline demographics and characteristics were balanced. Vaccine efficacy was 75.2% (adjusted 95% CI, 54.6-87.3) against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 and was similar against symptomatic infection (75.6% [55.5-99.9]). Efficacy was consistent across participants with and without comorbidities, and reached 93.7% (58.5-99.9) in the US. Vaccine efficacy against severe-critical Covid-19 was 100% (32.6-100.0; 0 vs 8 cases). The booster vaccine induced robust humoral responses and exhibited an acceptable safety profile. ConclusionsA homologous Ad26.COV2.S booster administered 2 months after primary single-dose vaccination in adults led to high vaccine efficacy, including against any symptomatic infection and SARS-CoV-2 variants prevalent during the study. (Funding: Janssen Research and Development and others; ENSEMBLE2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04614948.)

Assessing Durability of Vaccine Effect Following Blinded Crossover in COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials (preprint)

BackgroundSeveral candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 disease have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials and some have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. Efficacious vaccines should, at some point, be offered to placebo participants, which will occur before long-term efficacy and safety are known. MethodsFollowing vaccination of the placebo group, we show that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be derived by assuming the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the placebo crossovers. This reconstruction allows estimation of both vaccine durability and potential vaccine-associated enhanced disease. ResultsPost-crossover estimates of vaccine efficacy can provide insights about durability, identify waning efficacy, and identify late enhancement of disease, but are less reliable estimates than those obtained by a standard trial where the placebo cohort is maintained. As vaccine efficacy estimates for post-crossover periods depend on prior vaccine efficacy estimates, longer pre-crossover periods with higher case counts provide better estimates of late vaccine efficacy. Further, open-label crossover may lead to riskier behavior in the immediate crossover period for the unblinded vaccine arm, confounding vaccine efficacy estimates for all post-crossover periods. ConclusionsWe advocate blinded crossover and continued follow-up of trial participants to best assess vaccine durability and potential delayed enhancement of disease. This approach allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain participants on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunological and clinical effectiveness over time.